A supplying method to establish a materials bill in an automotive company

A method is proposed for obtaining a final list of raw material requirements, which must be available in the warehouse of automotive companies that produce rubber and rubber-metal parts for manufacturing engines, gearboxes, shock absorbers, etc. This method determines the critical materials considering the historical sales records. For each critical item, a distribution model of sales is determined using classical probabilistic models and finite density mixtures, and decision criteria for choosing the best model was based on the AIC value. Also for each critical item a sales forecast is performed using five of the most used methods, choosing the best forecast with the lowest MAD value. Finally, the service level to supply raw materials for the company is determined. All the calculations, estimation of each model parameter, forecasts, etc. were made using the statistical software R.